Posts Tagged ‘culture’

Wiki Surveys for Social Science Research

Friday, June 10th, 2011

Surveys and interviews form the central methodology for analyzing and discovering attitudes and opinions in social science research. With the advent of Web, online surveys have become an efficient way for researchers to collect and analyze large amounts of data. The popularity of the online survey tools like SurveyMonkey , Zoomerang, SurveyGizmo , etc. are testament to the productivity enabled by surveys. However, surveys represent a top-down rigid methodology forcing the survey designer to account for all possible answers up front, which is an impossible feat. In contrast, interviews allow the unanticipated information to bubble up bottoms up from the respondents. For instance, Integrity Watch Afghanistan (IWA), Afghan Perceptions and Experiences with Corruption: A National Survey 2010 primary data, involves interviewing randomly selected 6,500 respondents in 32 provinces on over 100 questions that deal with sectors where people experienced corruption; levels of bribes people paid to obtain services; what type of access people had to essential services; who people trusted to combat corruption; and experiences with corruption in the judiciary, police, and land management. However, the interview methodology is expensive and time-consuming as it requires implementation by research companies with expertise in effective research design, and precise management of data collection over several months.

Is there an alternative to surveys and interviews in social science research? Prof. Salganik’s team at Princeton came up with a hybrid approach, “wiki surveys”, that combines the structure of a survey with the open-endedness of an interview. To date, various organizations have created more than 1000 wiki surveys on the project Web site – All Our Ideas, generating in 45,000 ideas with 2 million votes. Wiki surveys range from the New York City Mayor’s Office’s engagement with citizens in shaping the city’s long term sustainability plan to the Catholic Relief Services surveying their 4000 employees to find out what makes an ideal relief worker. The figure below shows how the third question in Tactical Conflict Assessment Planning Framework (TCAPF) would be be implemented as a wiki survey:

tcapf wiki survey.jpg

Inspired by extending the kittenwar concept to ideas, the user interface guides the respondent to choose between two random alternatives, while encouraging the respondents to add their ideas into the mix of alternative responses. The additional ideas are added into the survey’s marketplace and voted up or down by the other survey-takers. Prof. Salganik says that “One of the patterns we see consistently is that ideas that are uploaded by users sometimes score better than the best ideas that started it off. Because no matter how hard you try, there are just ideas out there that you don’t know.”

All Our ideas have some basic visualization features to make sense of the wiki survey responses. Here is the visualization for the responses – “What do you think the Digital Public Library of America (DPLA) should be like?”:

DPLA Survey Reponse.jpg

It is worth noting that the top scoring 15 ideas starting with DPLA interoperability with Government Printing Office (GPO), Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC), an National Records Archive Administration (NARA) are all uploaded ideas not in the original set of alternatives. A powerful argument for crowd sourcing!

Admittedly, we still need boots on the ground to collect TCAPF data in Afghanistan given the demographics of the people we want to reach. On the other hand, wiki surveys hold great potential in reaching the younger generation fueling the Arab spring and the like.

Tribal Human Terrain of Afghanistan

Thursday, July 8th, 2010

Under the sponsorship of the OSD Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) program, we are developing a semantic wiki for Complex Operations. The envisioned operational impact of our effort is to foster collaboration and sharing of knowledge for whole-of-government approach, and to improve COIN/SSTR operations analysis and execution by focusing on population as center of gravity. The development of such a wiki presents several challenges that include the broad domain area of knowledge complex operations require, a large number of doctrine publications to wikify and semantify, several out of print key references, etc. With these challenges, we saw an opportunity to develop an open source culturepedia for Afghan and Pakistan human terrain as such knowledge is not aggregated and not readily available.

The Complex Operations wiki currently contains more than 1,000 articles on the various tribal dynamics and locational knowledge for the Afghanistan and Pakistan region, outlining tribal meta-knowledge such as the sub-groups, primary locations, traditional alliances, and traditional disputes of various groups to support situational awareness about the human terrain. Here is the wiki page for the covered Afghanistan Organizational Groups. We have created over 150 concept maps (an example shown below) to capture the knowledge about 1,000 ethnic groups, tribes, sub-tribes, clans within Afghanistan and Pakistan region to make this human terrain knowledge readily accessible to the complex operations practitioner.

tribal concept map.png

Tribal Tree in Afghanistan (click to view full-size)

Our use of a semantic wiki platform enables the representation of the human terrain knowledge as facts and relationships. For instance, the wiki page for the Achakzai tribal group lists the the known facts and relationships about this ethnic group both a human consumable form using semantic forms:

Achakzai Semantic Form.tiff

, and a machine consumable form as semantic RDF relationships:

Achakzai RDF.tiff

Factbox (click to view full-size)

By inspecting the semantic form, the reader can deduce that Achakzai is a sub-tribe of Zirak, which is a sub-tribe of the Durrani super-tribe, primarily located in the Chora and Khas Uruzgan districts, and traditionally have disputes with the Nurzai, Panjpai and Kakar tribes. The representation of this knowledge in a semantic wiki has the additional advantage for faceted browsing and answers engine queries. For instance, the semantic wiki can answer questions like “What are the tribes in Kandahar Province and their traditional disputes?” as a table which gets automatically updated every time a new tribe in this province is added to the wiki:
Tribes in Kandahar.tiff There are also several groups in Afghanistan that do not organize around tribal kinship ties, including Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Hazaras. In addition to tribal affiliation, social organizations such as solidarity groups – a group of people that acts as a single unit and organizes on the basis of some shared identity, and patronage networks – led by local warlord or khan – play an important role in understanding of the human terrain. Afghan and Pakistan human terrain and situational awareness knowledge base can be extended to include other populations of interest to the community, such as Yemen or Somalia.


FOCUS 2010 Human Social Cultural Behavior Modeling Conference

Sunday, August 9th, 2009

Last week we attended the OSD FOCUS 2010 Human Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB) Modeling Program Conference in Chantilly, VA. It was an oversubscribed event with more than 400 attendees reflecting the broad interest in this program. Plenary presentations stressed the need to focus on the needs of the warfighter as opposed to the needs of the research community. The importance of data especially at the province level was drilled over and over as as a true need. Several speakers urged the adoption of common meta-data for social science data sets. Another related modeling issue addressed was the difference between correlation (coincidence) vs. causal relationships.

Joe Watts of AGC lamented the lack of GIS support in the HSCB projects, and urged the development of HSCB map symbology for transition to the warfighter. Dr. Lisa Costa described the use of POET (Political, Operational, Economic and Technical) relationships in social network analysis, and the importance of developing a social radar for HSCB analysis. In his concluding remarks, Dr. Robert Foster challenged everyone to think about solutions for the professional training of HSCB domain.

We participated in a poster exhibition and gave three presentations: first, a general overview of our Semantic Wiki for Complex Operations project; second, the knowledge management needs of  the complex operations community; and, third, open source social science data repository for HSCB research. Our presentations were received well and generated several questions. In particular, a number of attendees expressed the suitability of our wiki supporting the training of complex operations professionals. There was also an interest in our social data repository supporting legacy data and automating the ingestion of new data.

There were too many interesting presentations to cover every one. Dr. Sean O’Brien gave an overview of his Conflict Modeling, Planning, and Outcomes Experimentation (COMPOEX) program. The precision and recall performance of the lead contractor Lockheed Martin’s system based on Ada boosting of multiple social behavior models was fairly impressive. Dr. Barry Silverman‘s agent based model CountrySim – one of the models in the Lockheed Martin system – was one of the models contributing to the high performance. In terms of data collection, Prof. Mansoor Moaddel‘s values and attitudes survey for Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt was particularly interesting.

CDR Dylan Schmorrow put the state of the art in human social culture behavior models into perspective by comparing the HSCB models to models for weather and economic forecasting. The maturity of weather forecasting models is higher than those for economic forecasting. On this scale, CDR Schmorrow positioned HSCB modeling on the x-axis while hoping the HSCB program serving as a catalyst to ignite HSCB modeling into a steady march towards maturity.